2024 NFL analytics mock draft: Using projection model, consensus big board to make best picks (2024)

We are less than a week away from the 2024 NFL Draft, which means we are fully into “Draft SZN,” where there are so many rumors out there that all of our brains are being twisted into pretzels. So let’s get away from prognostication and trying to follow the speculation that’s been floating around and take a slightly different approach with this mock draft.

Here, I’ll be using our consensus big board to make selections based on premier positions and positional needs based on my NFL Projection Model as if I were the general manager of every team. Yes, I can trade, and I tried to make them as realistic as possible.

With that said, let’s get to it.

1. Chicago Bears (from CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Williams ranks at the top of our consensus big board, and he plays the most valuable position in all of sports. He’s the pick, and there isn’t a debate in my war room, but we still wait 10 minutes or so before calling in the pick to keep viewers tuned in on TV. I don’t make the rules.

2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

It comes down to Maye or Jayden Daniels here. I don’t believe anyone knows what the Commanders are doing, so I’m going to stick to our consensus board and select the third-best overall player and second-best quarterback, Maye. He has been a mainstay atop of industry big boards since last summer and is two years younger than Daniels.

3. New England Patriots: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

The Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett this offseason, and he’s fine to get them through this year without needing to reach for a QB. I’m skeptical of Daniels’ astronomical rise over the second half of last season, and I’m not willing to pick him here. There are too many needs on this offense for a non-elite QB prospect to succeed, so I’m comfortable with Brissett’s play and adding the top wide receiver to an offense that is severely lacking skill position talent.

4. New York Giants (from ARI): Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Daniels is No. 8 on the consensus big board, and though trading up for him isn’t my favorite move, I am not a Daniel Jones believer. However, having Jones on the roster allows me some time to let Daniels adjust to the NFL game. I have questions about Daniels as a passer, but his elite rushing ability raises his floor. He is a high-ceiling prospect, and that is enough for me to take him here despite his being slightly older (23) than the type of QB I’d typically prefer to draft this high.

5. New York Jets (from LAC): Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Brock Bowers to the Jets at 10 is a popular pick, but why take a risk on a tight end prospect when you can trade up for a dynamic wide receiver? Aaron Rodgers will need assets, and he is in win-now mode at this point in his career. I’m going full-send to maximize this window while I have it.

6. Arizona Cardinals (from NYG): Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

The Cardinals are no stranger to trading back (see last year’s draft), and that’s the decision I went with. I’m still getting a top-end wide receiver prospect, and I’ve added extra draft capital to continue injecting talent into my roster. Odunze isn’t ranked as high as Harrison or Nabers, but he’s right on their heels as the fifth-best player in this draft class, according to our consensus board.

7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

This one is almost too easy. The Titans just hired one of the best offensive line coaches (Bill Callahan) of all time, and that just so happens to be an area of need. Alt ranks as the best offensive lineman coming out and can slide in at left tackle immediately.

8. Minnesota Vikings (from ATL): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

If I thought Daniels was going to fall, of course the same is happening with McCarthy. I attempted to trade some draft capital for Washington’s pick but was denied. From there, I wasn’t going to give up too much to get a quarterback prospect with a wide range of possible outcomes and one who ranks No. 21 on the consensus big board. McCarthy has some exciting traits, but there is limited tape to make a solid projection. I do think he fits well in coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

9. Chicago Bears: Dallas Turner, edge, Alabama

After drafting Williams, the Bears are set on offense for now and need talent on defense. Turner edges out Jared Verse as the top defensive player on our big board and will fit in nicely opposite Montez Sweat for years to come in Chicago.

10. Los Angeles Chargers (from NYJ): Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Jim Harbaugh’s returning to the NFL and drafting one of the best tight end prospects of the last decade comes as no surprise. The Chargers have a lot of needs on offense, but they’re set at QB, so why not get them a dynamic pass catching weapon (and a willing blocker) after acquiring more draft capital with the trade down the board?

11. Atlanta Falcons (from MIN): Jared Verse, edge, Florida State

This is a top-heavy draft when it comes to offensive prospects, as 15 of the top 21 on our big board play on that side of the ball. But the Falcons are in much better shape on offense and need a pass rusher. Verse can fill that void, with some teams viewing him as the best edge player in this draft class.

12. Denver Broncos: Laiatu Latu, edge, UCLA

The scarcity of defensive players is pushing them up the board here, and Denver, like just about every team, needs pass rushers. Latu is maybe the most technically sound rusher in the class and was highly productive at UCLA this past season ranking in the top-10 in splash-play rate.

13. Las Vegas Raiders: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The Raiders need a lot, especially on defense, and with the top three edges off the board, we are going to grab the top cornerback in this class. I’m technically going against the consensus here as Arnold ranks right behind Quinyon Mitchell, but Arnold is a year and a half younger than Mitchell. At this position, I want the younger prospect, as CB production usually relies heavily on athleticism.

14. New Orleans Saints: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

This came down to Fashanu or Alabama’s JC Latham as the Saints are in desperate need of a left tackle. Latham ranks higher on the consensus board but projects more as a right tackle, and our Dane Brugler has said, “Some teams project him best inside at guard.” Fashanu can step in right away and be a solid pass protector to Derek Carr’s blindside, and that’s the better fit for the Saints right now.

15. Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

The Colts need another pass catcher and to upgrade their secondary, and only one player left fits the bill that I wouldn’t consider a reach. Since the Raiders decided to go with the younger of the two top cornerback prospects, Indianapolis is going to come out of the first round with the top CB in the draft.

16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

I have the Seahawks grading out pretty poorly on the offensive line, and Fautanu provides versatility at all five spots, which is always a plus on the offensive line throughout an entire NFL season. Brugler is even higher on Fautanu than our consensus board (No. 9 vs. No. 16), so from a pure value standpoint, this is a no-brainer for Seattle.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

Remember how I mentioned Latham might project well inside in the NFL? The Jaguars don’t have an immediate need at offensive tackle right now, but Cam Robinson and Walker Little are not on the books past 2024. Latham could help out inside in his rookie season while potentially making the move to tackle, if needed, in 2025.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

I thought about Amarius Mims here but ultimately decided on Murphy to boost a defensive line that just lost D.J. Reader in free agency. Murphy is the best interior defensive line prospect in this class, and there is only one other defensive tackle inside the top 32 on the consensus big board.

19. Los Angeles Rams: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

This was the most difficult pick during this first round, and it was simply because there wasn’t anyone near the top of my board who played a position of need. It ultimately came down to Mims or Thomas, and Thomas can produce more during his rookie season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford only has so many years left, and giving him another high-caliber pass catcher alongside Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should make this passing attack almost impossible to defend.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

If Mims is available here for the Steelers next week, they’ll be very happy. Mims is very inexperienced but might have the highest ceiling of any offensive tackle in this class. The Steelers took an offensive tackle from Georgia (Broderick Jones) last year and sat him for part of the year to get him comfortable, and this season with Mims would be no different.

21. Miami Dolphins: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The Dolphins have a big need on the offensive line and honestly, I didn’t give a thought to any other position since Fuaga was still on the board. Not even for Xavier Worthy. Fuaga can be a right tackle or guard so his versatility will be key for piecing together the protection in front of Tua Tagovailoa.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

It wasn’t long ago that Newton was considered the top defensive tackle in this draft class. He’s slipped a little during the draft process but still comes in as a top-25 prospect on our big board. The Eagles love drafting premier positions in the first round, and Newton fits the bill. Throw in the fact they just lost Fletcher Cox to retirement, and this pick as his replacement is easy to defend.

23. Atlanta Falcons (from MIN): Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

As mentioned earlier, the Falcons are set up well on offense. They’re not set up well at cornerback. After taking one of the top edge rushers at No. 13, we are going to boost our secondary with CB3 on the big board.

24. Dallas Cowboys: Graham Barton, C, Duke

I almost went with Tyler Guyton here, but he’s a bit of a project, and if we are going to take a risk, I’m going to be fine with a Tyler Smith experiment at tackle while Barton fits a role inside with the versatility to play all three interior spots.

25. Green Bay Packers: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

The Packers have an offensive line need, and Guyton was hard to pass up here, but they also have a need in the secondary. DeJean can play cornerback, safety or nickel, so you get an impact player at multiple spots and fit whatever need your defense has over the next few years.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, edge, Penn State

The Bucs have a huge need at pass rusher, and Robinson has the measurables combined with an elite first step that will give him a chance to produce in the NFL. There are some production issues — and run defense issues — that have caused Robinson to slide to the end of the first round, but if everything clicks for him, he has the potential to be elite.

27. Arizona Cardinals: Darius Robinson, edge/DT, Missouri

As I mentioned with their first pick, the Cardinals just need to keep adding talent to their roster. Robinson comes in at No. 32 on our big board and plays at a premier position, so I’m OK with reaching a little bit. I’m a big believer in targeting premier positions at the end of the first round, and that’s what the Cardinals are doing here.

28. Buffalo Bills: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

Guyton has all the tools, but he’s likely going to need a little bit of time before he becomes an NFL starter. Luckily for the Bills, they have quarterback Josh Allen to raise the floor of their offense while Guyton gets adjusted to the speed of the NFL game.

29. Detroit Lions: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

Dan Campbell’s offense isn’t going to slack at the offensive line, and Powers-Johnson is someone who can play center down the line but line up at guard in the meantime. The Lions have needs at both positions, so this is a great fit. Keeping the offense operating at a high level is paramount to their success this year. They can plan to build up the defense throughout the rest of the draft.

30. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

The Ravens need an offensive lineman, and Morgan is a guy who can play offensive tackle and guard. As you’ve probably followed, I’m a believer in versatile offensive linemen, and Morgan fits what the Ravens need in their window as a contender.

31. San Francisco 49ers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

This one was tough for me because McKinstry doesn’t have the speed I want, but he comes in at No. 27 on our big board, so you’re getting some value here at pick 31.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

The Chiefs acquired Marquise Brown this offseason, but they’re still in need of a wide receiver — particularly with Rashee Rice’s ongoing legal issues — so Mitchell is a good fit here. Even with a promising defense helping lead the way, the Chiefs would want a little bit more on offense to take some of the burden off QB Patrick Mahomes’ shoulders.

(Photos of Cooper DeJean, Brian Thomas Jr. and Brock Bowers: Rich Graessle, Ed Zurga and Brandon Sloter / Getty Images)